According to a 2014 report issued by our good friends over at the IEA (International Energy Agency) titled, “Africa Energy Outlook: A Focus On Energy Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa” biomass consumption in sub-Saharan Africa is set to rise by 40% over the next two decades. What’s more, the report tells us that increased levels of bioenergy consumption and higher prices result in the market value growing to almost $70 billion by 2040. (It’s about $12 billion today.)
Let’s dig deeper. Where is the growth coming from? The slide below tells part of the story:
In short, bioenergy in the form of biofuels (presumably liquids), biogas, and pellets will see their biggest growth. This is consistent with a growing consensus around the potential of bioenergy for Africa, and it’s that (1) bio can be a substantial piece of the energy balance pie for the region and, (2), bio remains a largely under-invested sector.
The other thing worth noting is that this projected growth is based on what the report calls “New Policies Scenario.” The big “if” in all this is whether this multiplicity of new policies will be ever be adopted and/or implemented. These policies will require massive investment in infrastructure, which, almost five years after the issuance of the report, do not appear to have materialized yet.
Interestingly enough, charcoal growth is projected to be relatively modest. But that will all depend on whether these new policies are adopted and yield the intended results.
Let’s look at a few more slides.
As of 2016, the table above tells us East and West Africa are currently the biggest consumers of biofuels, mostly in the form of charcoal, no doubt. The table below shows more clearly where the consumption of charcoal is coming from.
A few other conclusions worth noting:
- Four out of five people in sub-Saharan Africa rely on the traditional use of solid biomass, mainly fuelwood, for cooking.
- A 40% rise in demand for bioenergy exacerbates strains on the forestry stock, with efforts to promote more sustainable wood production hindered by the operation of much of the fuelwood and charcoal supply chain outside the formal economy.
- Scarcity, along with efforts to make alternative fuels like liquefied petroleum gas available, results in some switching away from wood use, especially in towns.
- Promotion of more efficient biomass cookstoves reduces the health effects of pollution from indoor smoke.
- Nonetheless, 650 million people – more than one-third of an expanding population – still cook with biomass in an inefficient and hazardous way in 2040.
This means that in order to meet the project growth in bioenergy demand in the coming decades, ALL biomass energy solutions should be on the table. So if you’re selling microgassifiers and wood pellets, GOOD FOR YOU! If you’re selling improved cookstoves, GREAT! If you’re making sustainable carbonized charcoal substitute fuels, like briquettes, KEEP GOING!
It’s a little bit like tackling Climate Change: SSA needs all of the above. Done properly, these solutions could be carbon neutral or even carbon negative. What is known is that in order to scale up and really make an impact, national policies will need to be clearly enounced and vigorously supported.
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