Via Climate Change News, a online publication of EESI (Environmental & Energy Study Institute)
New Research Predicts Less Precipitation for East Africa as Global Temperatures Rise
On March 4, a study published in Climate Dynamics predicted that droughts common in eastern Africa are likely to continue if global temperatures rise further. Researchers studied temperature, windspeed, and precipitation data over a 20-30 year period to determine what drove climate variations in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. They found that the Indian Ocean has warmed exceptionally fast, increasing rainfall over the ocean and the westward movement of air over Eastern Africa, which causes a decrease in rainfall in the region.
However, some East African environmental scientists question the new research, since they believe that climate change will bring increased rainfall to the region. The research also contradicts the scenarios of increased rainfall projected by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). According to East African scientists, the U.S.-sponsored research was “half-baked,” and only served U.S. interests, while the IPCC used data from the past 300 years from many different sources to draw its conclusions.
However, researchers from the University of California who co-authored the new paper said that global models have a difficult time accurately simulating rainfall patterns across tropical areas, and that the IPCC models do contain a lot of uncertainty, so they should not be taken at face value.
For additional information see: Reuters, Study Abstract
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